The CRISIL Research has projected that revenues of large pharma players are likely to grow by 15-17 per cent y-o-y in Q2 FY12, led by strong performances of players operating in the US market, as these companies have gained healthy market share in recently launched products. Revenues of mid-sized players are expected to grow at a slightly higher rate of 16-18 per cent y-o-y (on a lower base) owing to rising exports to regulated markets and strong growth in the domestic market. EBITDA margins of large players are expected to be around 23-25 per cent, while those of mid-sized players are expected to hover around 18-20 per cent.
The second quarter of 2011-12 will be marked by significant moderation in revenue growth and continued pressure on margins. Consumer confidence has declined due to stubbornly high inflation, rising interest rates, as well as uncertainty over future income growth. This is reflected in the slowdown in sales volumes across consumption-linked and interest rate sensitive sectors such as automobiles, real estate, textiles, and retail. Investment growth also has been rather muted, which has impacted order book/volume growth in infrastructure-linked sectors such as cement, capital goods, and construction.
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